I'm a math gal. I get it. So when I read the weather forecast and it says 30% chance of a thunderstorm tonight, part of me says "Oh, it won't happen." However, I don't trust the percentages they give. Even the MENTION of a storm means it is more likely to happen than 30%. If they say 60%, I plan for rain. If they say 80%, it's probably already raining!
What's with the misuse of percentages? Is their formula wonky? Are they trying to be optimistic? Are they in cahoots with the emergency umbrella and poncho sellers of the world? What's the deal?
Movie of the Day: Singin' in the Rain.
1 comment:
Hi, I've been lurking for a while and finally post.
You think your weather station gives predictions such as "30% chance of a thunderstorm tonight" which are consistently lowballing the actual chance of rain. The evenings after they say "30"... Maybe it rains 50% of those evenings. Why wouldn't they notice this and raise the numbers? Yeah, those may be the reasons.
The "weather-chance game" could be to say 5,30,70 or "95% chance of rain tomorrow" and be "right" in that the right fraction of days really did have rain.
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